Republican power struggles leading up to '08

The way I see 2008 playing out on the Republican side is a triangulation of power amongst three main groups and candidates:

1. the Bushies/Establishment and their man Jeb
   
2. the Christian Coalition base, and George Allen
   
3. the old school conservatives-libetarian wing, and McCain

That said, if they're going to have Cheney step down before 2008, I pray that they don't fill it with Jeb. He has been an undistinguished governor who doesn't deserve to be president. It wuold be a pure example of more cronyism and mediocrity from the folks who brought us Brownie, the self-nominated "fashion god." But if wishing made reality, we wouldn't be in Iraq, Bush wouldn't be president, and the CEOS of Fortune 500 companies would be toilet scrubbers. He'll probably get it because the insiders want to install someone who they can trust.

This is not necessarily going to fly with the theocrats, who have seen that Bush and his gang are in it for themselves and their own increase in, and preservation of power. In their eyes, Miers was Bush's 30 pieces of silver. I suspect that they'll make a strong case for someone like Sen. George Allen (R-VA) who knows how to play the inside game but also opposed Miers. Once upon a time it would have been someone like Bill Frist, but, ahem, his stock has gone down. In 2012, it'll be ::shudder:: Ralph Reed. I suspect that if the Bush machine can't get their man in 2008, they will support Allen over McCain.

The partisan in me says, I hope it's not McCain, because he is someone who the American public actually views as a leader (and more independent thinking), and I believe we would have a harder time defeating him in 2008 than any other candidate. He is also someone who the independents, libertarians and true conservatives would be more at home with.

It'll be interesting to watch what goes down, and how much of their fight spills into the public, versus the GOP having the equivalent of private hunting parties and keeping their battles in-house. I'm also keeping my eyes peeled for how Harry Reid manipulates tensions on their side. Go Harry, go!