Hawaii CD-2: APIA candidates abound

So I promised that I would profile the Hawaii 2nd Congressional District race to fill current Congressman Ed Case's seat (he's running against Senator Daniel Akaka in the Democratic primary, a race that I have already analyzed.) And since I have a bit of a lull at work, I will fulfill that promise. Additionally, I am going to try to analyze the likelihood of Democratic candidates' chances more than their ideologies since I don't have a dog in this race.

Why do I find this race of interest? Because there are so many APIA candidates, and from different ethnicities, unlike most races on the mainland. Also because Hawaii is a blue state (the whole Congressional delegation is Democratic - a rarity) that some say is tilting red, another oddity in this political cycle when people everywhere seem to be getting sick of Bush and the Republicans. So it's the sociocultural and political factors that have me hooked. Let's look at how the candidates stack up, eh?

Fundraising
Here are the financials of what each candidate has raised, courtesy of Open Secrets:

Mazie K. Hirono (D) Quentin Kuhio Kawananakoa (R) Colleen Wakako Hanabusa (D) Brian Schatz (D) Gary L. Hooser (D) Clayton H. W. Hee (D) Ron Menor (D) Nestor Ralph Garcia (D) Bob C. Hogue (R) Joe Zuiker (D) Hanalei Y. Aipoalani (D)	$438,713 $377,770 $248,603 $221,794 $178,853 $66,680 $46,611 $44,000 $30,956 $3,830 $0

These figures are from the June 30 deadline, so obviously coffers have increased since then, but it seems that Mazie Hirono, a Japanese American who served as Lt. Gov for 2 terms and ran unsuccessfully for Governor in 2002 (lost to Republican Linda Lingle in part of the whole Republican shakeup], has a fundraising advantage that's about two times ahead of her nearest Democratic primary challenger, Colleen Hanabusa. Hanabusa is a Japanese American state senator from the district who seems to be the candidate of business (this may explain the fundraising numbers.)

Demographics
And now the racial breakdown from the US Census:

RACE
One race	952,194	78.6
White	294,102	24.3
Black or African American	22,003	1.8
American Indian and Alaska Native	3,535	0.3
Asian	503,868	41.6
Asian Indian	1,441	0.1
Chinese	56,600	4.7
Filipino	170,635	14.1
Japanese	201,764	16.7
Korean	23,537	1.9
Vietnamese	7,867	0.6
Other Asian 1	42,024	3.5
Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander	113,539	9.4
Native Hawaiian	80,137	6.6
Guamanian or Chamorro	1,663	0.1
Samoan	16,166	1.3
Other Pacific Islander 2	15,573	1.3
Some other race	15,147	1.3
Two or more races	259,343	21.4

The APIA breakdown in particular is of interest because there has never been a Filipino American in the US Congress before, and one of the likeliest opportunities for Filipinos to have a seat is in Hawaii, a Democratic state (as opposed to parts of the Inland Empire in California that have a lot of Filipinos but are solidly conservative.) Additionally, it's possible that with so many APIAs in the race, the vote could be heavily divided and Sierra Club endorsed candidates
(yes, they endorsed two people) Brian Schatz or Gary Hooser could win, since 27 percent of the population is white. Although Joe Zuiker has a compelling campaign pitch (he's a marathoner who's literally running for Congress), has low name recognition and funds. Hanalei Aipoalani was an aide to Patsy Mink shares Zuiker's weaknesses.

Additionally, Hawaii has never sent a Native Hawaiian to Congress, but did have Native Hawaiian delegates (before it officially became a state). State Senator Clayton Hee (couldn't find a campaign website for him) is a Native Hawaiian who is good friends with (but not formally endorsed by) sitting Congressman Neil Abercrombie (D) from the 1st Congressional District.

Of the APIAs that Hawaii has sent to Congress since its inception into the United States of America, practically all the Senators have been APIA, from Hiram Fong (R), followed by Spark Matsunaga (D), and then Daniel Inouye (D). Senator Akaka spans a very large chunk of the time, with the exception of Oren Long (D) who served for 1 term only in the beginning. Wikipedia has a good history of the delegation.

On the Congressional side, there have been Chinese Americans like Patsy Mink (D) and Akaka (D), Japanese Americans like Matsunaga and Pat Saiki (R). (End digression.)

Other factors
Hirono seems to be ahead in endorsements and definitely in name recognition (only 24% unfamiliar with her). Many of the big name political players that usually do high voter turnout have opted to sit out the primary (since there are so many candidates) and instead to support the Democratic nominee, so having any in-state endorsements is key. The Sierra Club's split endorsement will carry less weight on election day.

A June poll showed Hirono with the highest favoribility (52%) followed by Matsunaga (46%), then Hanabusa (39%). However, the poll had only 165 respondents and a measure of error of 8%, which is really quite high, and so you have to take this one with an even greater grain of salt than normal. So I also wonder how much Hirono and Matsunaga's favorability ratings are driven by their name recognition (Hirono having served statewide, and Matsunaga being the late senator's surname.)

Hirono's disapproval rating was fairly high — 24 percent — but on par with that of state Sen. Ron Menor. Hee had the highest "unfavorable" rating at 27 percent of those who had an opinion about him.

Still, Hirono is in an enviable position.

"I would rather be Mazie at this stage with name recognition and a relatively large disapproval rating than be where the other candidates are that don't have much disapproval but people don't know them at all," said University of Hawai'i political science professor Neal Milner.

The buzz around State Senator Ron Menor(who coincidentally should write a biography rather than a resume for his website since candidates should tell a story about themselves, and resumes are very dry and boring), and Honolulu City Councilman Nestor Garcia's race to be the first Filipino Congressmember has even made its way to other countries, but sadly they are lagging in financial support, and dividing the Filipino base vote, which is only going to strengthen Hirono's hand.

I think that Hirono has the upperhand in winning the primary because of her name recognition and her Washington contacts, and probably in the general election as well, since Hawaii has been so reliably Democratic. But with an eight way primary, anything can happen.

And now I must stop blogging because researching and writing this piece has taken about 2 hours out of my life and my wrists. But that's probably as much as you've ever known about Hawaii politics (if you've made it to this point, congrats!)