Previous wallflower states now treated like the prom queen

Well, all these states who are used to their votes not mattering now might get to decide who our nominee is. Pennsylvania for one has had Chelsea Clinton in the past few days and a massive influx of resources and staff.

Will Bunch of Attytood thinks that it's not PA Gov. Rendell who's the ace in the hole for Hillary, but rather Philly mayor Nutter, since his prominent support of Hillary assures white voters that they aren't being racist by voting against a black man.

A blogger finds that Obama has a hard time in Appalachia. This has big portents for Pennsylvania and explains a good deal about the Ohio turnout.

Puerto Rico is changing up its June 7th caucus to a June 1st primary (in a move that can only benefit Hillary.) Don't forget that one of the largest concentration of Puerto Ricans is in New York State, and that also Hillary has been doing better in primaries than in caucuses, where her field staff don't get how to organize (and admittedly the seniors have a hard time getting to, so there is an age discrepancy.)

Michigan will revote, Florida (in the form of Democratic senator Bill Nelson) is trying to shake down Howard Dean's DNC for money for a recount. I heard the Michigan definitely will revote line a few weeks back from an on the ground source. I'm glad that Michigan will revote - I'm all for people voting and being able to vote. But Florida - this is really ridiculous by the way - if the state hadn't decided to flaunt the rules to begin with and try to draw more national attention and prominence to their state and increase the value of their votes, then they shouldn't have changed their primary date. Now, they get the prominence that they want if they decide to schedule revotes in June, and they're trying to bribe/extort money for that revote from an entity that is supposed to be neutral?

If Dean gave Michigan and Florida the money, it would encourage other states in 4 years to also flaunt the rules and then whine and cry and extort more money to hold revotes. Moreover, holding a revote and paying for one would be seen as being partial to Hillary since it 1) encourages rule-breaking and 2) Michigan and Florida both went for Hillary already. That's not the role of the DNC. If Florida finally decides they want a revote, they have to figure out how to pay for it.

Lastly, on the press and bias, I wanted to point some attention to Marc Ambinder's excellent analysis. He brings up white guilt (I can't believe no other reporters have the guts to use this term.)

Then there is white guilt, magnified by the progressive political impulse found within the professional set's cultural liberalism. We are transfixed by race, obsessed with it, we whites are obsessed with expiating the collective sins of our country, and that works to Obama's advantage. I think we feel we are done with gender (we aren't, but we feel as if we are) and so we don't meditate on those questions as much.

Whether or not you agree that the press has been treating Obama kinder, or whether you believe that the press leans left, you need to read this. I don't know that it's just white guilt because there is also a class guilt that comes from being the white collar tastemakers/spinmakers and being the Fourth Estate. That comes from some of the top reporters and editors having been Ivy League educated. That comes from reporters generally being educated, and therefore falling into the Obama demographic camp is they tend to be Democratic.

Primary impressions

Long lines and bad weather, Maryland polls extended their hours so that people could cast their votes. Obama's 3 to 1 in DC, and 60-40 in virginia and Maryland. Snow across the region, and people don't know how to drive in snow or rain, so bad traffic meaning long lines.

DC was a goner for Obama, with visibility events every single day and even on every corner, every Metro stop and old white hippies, young black students, and everybody in between cheering on Obama. Cross sections of America, of our communities, joining together in victory, unison and hope.

Obama won big, across the board in urban and rural areas, as well as with Latino (53-47) and APIA districts in suburban Northern Virginia, and in working class areas. The mo is shifting, and HARD. I don't know that a majority of Latino voters know about the Patti Solis Doyle stepdown, but this has to have the Clinton camp worried. Also, her deputy campaign manager left - Mike Henry had been under fire for his memo to NOT play in Iowa, but he was right. If Clinton was going to rejigger the machine, she should have done it after Iowa, and she should have done it more decisively (including kicking Mark Penn out.)

Here's the best news of the night for the general election:
With 92 percent reporting in Virginia, Obama is now 102,000 votes ahead of all Republicans combined.

You know, I wouldn't be surprised if Clinton was having a hard time competing because usually you model your voter universe around likely voters - a stable number of tried and true voters. This consistency usually makes it much easier to run the numbers, but the Obama factor brings in an unknowable number of new voters so that you don't know what your opponent's voter universe is, or how big the yield will be. This is an uneasy position to be in. Because you can still target your base of unlikely voters (white women) and you can model what you anticipate Obama's turnout, and try to cut into that base, but when only half the population generally turns out to vote, having a whole other say 25% turnout is CRAZY-MAKING.

CNN says Obama now has more delegates.

Hillary looks TERRIBLE at her speech. And her voice is really scratchy.

"There's a saying in Texas, all hat and no cattle."

"I would require that congress not get a raise until we raise the minimum wage!"

Universal healthcare, the plan that members of Congress, our staffs and federal employees get.

Obama's speech - new political majority. Nice, he's introducing the idea of a $4000/year college credit that you can only get by giving back with public service - "we invest in you, you invest in America." Nicely played to a largely college audience.

Huckabee's speech - he looks a little phased, but not really. Less jolly, more sombre than normal. "We're still working to give voters a choice. All the people who have not yet had an election have as much choice and right to vote as those who have already in the frontloaded race."

I think it's a good tihng that Huckabee is still in the race - it gives the religious conservatives a strong contrast to McCain and if Huckabee doesn't get it, it ruins their hopes and deflates tem even more.

John McCain's post Potomac Primary sweep is a very dour speech - talking about hope and teamwork. He's on the offensive against Obama right now, casting himself as the voice and embodiment of experience and knowledge.

Also he's not even talking about small government, he's talking medium sized government. His supporters must be so bewildered.

I made the offhand mention that McCain is Colonel Tye from Battlestar Galactica which caused a friend to gleefully say, "That's right, he's a cylon! . . . No wait, he's not as noble as Tye."

"I don;t seek the presidency with the personal hubris that history has anointed me in its hour of need" - OUCH! "I'm running to serve America and to champion the ideas that help every America generation make a stronger country and a stronger world."

"Hope, my friends, is a powerful thing. I can attest to that better than many, for I have seen men's hopes tested in hard and cruel ways that few will ever experience. And I stood astonished at the resilience of their hope in the darkest of hours because it did not reside in an exaggerated belief in their individual strength, but in the support of their comrades, and their faith in their country. My hope for our country resides in my faith in the American character, the character which proudly defends the right to think and do for ourselves, but perceives self-interest in accord with a kinship of ideals, which, when called upon, Americans will defend with their very lives.

To encourage a country with only rhetoric rather than sound and proven ideas that trust in the strength and courage of free people is not a promise of hope. It is a platitude.

When I was a young man, I thought glory was the highest ambition, and that all glory was self-glory. My parents tried to teach me otherwise, as did the Naval Academy. But I didn't understand the lesson until later in life, when I confronted challenges I never expected to face."

Now he gets back to the Republican talking points, but they are less pointed:

"For a government that takes and spent less of your money . . .

provides strong and capable defense"

"I won't confine myself only to the comfort of only speaking to those who will speak to me"

"And my friends, I promise you I am fired up and ready to yield."

McCain was much more gracious and genteel this time around, less sneering, which can only be to his benefit. but one look at the tv screen is sufficient contrast - McCain has no energy, his supporters who are all older white people have no energy. compare that with Obama's supporters. We are the future!

Looking forward to Wisconsin, it's culturally a mix of Illinois, Iowa, and Minnesota. The economic populism is strong, and the people and party are not quite as progressive as Minnesota, nor as open to candidates of color. But Madison has the only out lesbian in Congress, Tammy Baldwin, and Rep. Gwen Moore is a new progressive fighter from Milwaukee. (Baldwin is for Hillary, Moore for Obama.) Wisconsin is a pretty white state - African Americans make up 6%, Latinos 5%, and APAs 2%. These are also mostly concentrated around Congressional districts in Milwaukee and Madison.

The other thing that was prominent was if you overlay the states that McCain has won with the states that Obama has won, they're pretty much the same states - mostly the big Demographic states. And THAT means VERY well for the general matchup, because there's NO WAY New Yorkers, Californians, Washington State, New England (with exception of New Hampshire) or Illinois residents are going to vote for McCain over Obama. Plus Obama has won more states than McCain, and a wider range of states.

Lol, Clinton's surrogate Paul Begala said that "you know, the writers are back, so people will be paying less attention" and thus the calendar is beneficial. Although I have to say, whether it's because of the writers' strike or enthusiasm for Obama or what, people have been more informed this time around than ever before.

Donna Brazile - "People are flocking to Obama because they hear something they are thirsting for."

Ok, back to the celebration-
OH SMACK - eleanor holmes norton on colbert Report, and she's not playing the straight woman or the angry black woman - she's really happy and funny and light hearted. Cute!

Super Tuesday Means Super Turnout, or "I drink your milkshake!"

Democratic voter turnout bested GOP turnout in all the states where both parties had primaries or caucuses (except for Utah, where Mormons turned out en masse for Romster.) A Romster can be formally defined as if a plastic hamster were massively wealthy and decided to run for office, essentially buying states, but no love from his fellow hamsters or media.

Here's a list of the states:
North Dakota, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Minnesota, Missouri (by far!), Connecticut, Delaware as well as traditional bases like NJ, NY, Mass, Illinois, California.

And we almost had parity in Alabama, which is pretty amazing.

So far, New Mexico still has yet to be called. I think it's interesting that swing states like New Mexico (less than 500 votes in 2000) and Missouri in the general election are also swing states in our Democratic primary/caucus. Meanwhile, look at states like California, New York, Massachusetts and Illinois. They are predictably blue in the general, and they all had over 10% margins in the primaries. There's just as much indecision in the Democratic base in swings states I guess.

Most importantly, both Hillary and Obama got 5 mil votes each, compared to McCain's 3 million. Given that many of these were in red states, as Daniel Day-Lewis in "There Will Be Blood" might say, "I drink your milkshake!"

Of course, if I were Kelis and I were talking about Democratic turnout (or even some mashup of Kelis-Obama bragging about field operation strength in caucus states), I would have to go with the old standby:

My milkshake brings all the boys to the yard,
And they're like
It's better than yours
Damn right, it's better than yours
I can teach you but I'd have to charge.

I could go on in this vein, comparing votes and voters to milkshakes, but someone would probably shoot me. Oops, didn't mean to reference the movie again. . . (and in case you're interested, the movie was slow. s ----- l ------- o --------- w. painfully so. But certain highlights were worth the 2.5 hours of mindnumbing drawn out setup.)

Liveblogging the returns

GA: Barack Obama won in Georgia as CNN calls it. As expected. On the GOP side, no early returns yet.

TN: for Clinton

CT: Obama leading . . . . Obama still leading by 3% with over half the votes counted. They called it for Obama!

Delaware: Obama leading by 5% with 16 % in.

OK: Clinton.

MA: clinton. Ouch. This is one of the things I had called earlier - that Kerry and Teddy Kennedy spent a lot of time outside of Mass. Moreover, they endorsed late in the game, whereas the local officials from Menino to the city Council Chair had endorsed early. This brings us to the adage "all politics is local."

Alabama - Obama.

NJ - clinton.

NY - clinton.

ND - Obama.

Huckabeez is doing decently overall. I bet he becomes VP to McCain's P. He's done better than expected, winning parts of the South that the Christian Coalition has traditionally been strong in like alabama.

MN - sweet Minnesota for Obama.

Utah for Obama. Damns. Talking 50 State strategy.

Mitt Romney is on trying to talk as the ultimate Washington outsider despite having headed up the Republican governors association. Reagan this Reagan that. Reagan is my ass hat. He's actually giving a decent speech.

Kansas for Obama.

Clinton's speech is pretty good too - "I won't let any one swiftboat our future." She's taking a lot of Edwards talking point "I see an America where we stand up to the oil companies" !!!! Great talking points - "I see an America where when a young man or woman signs up to serve our country, we sign up to serve them too" !!! Damn, she's stealing the best talking points of all her primary opponents. She also said that this isn't a game, even though earlier in the "game" she had said, "now the fun part starts." Damn, I feel inspired by her!

Earlier, Ronald martin, CNN pundit, got Jamal Simmons of the Obama campaign to concede that Obama has a Latino problem. NOT GOOD. Based on the fact that Obama only got 52% of Latinos in his OWN state of Illinois. Jamal had been trying to say that Obama is the opposite of Guiliani - the more people know him the more they like him and that he needs time. So this talking point was really pointed and not to Obama's benefit.

Colorado - Obama! nice.

Obama's speech is not as on fire as Hillary's - she gave an Obama style speech complete with Edwards flourishes. It was a dramatic departure. Obama is still giving a good speech, because he is an amazing orator. He looks incredibly tired but happy.

I think this is interesting because regardless of who wins MO and CA, they will both call this a victory, and both be right. I think that if they had drawn more of a contrast at the Los Angeles debate, they would have been more differentiated. Still, at the end of the day, he can hold Hillary's voters and carry new and independent voters.

He's painting a real picture and it's real poetic. He's doing call and response like in church. Wow, the voter turnout has been dramatic.

"We have to choose between change and more of hte same. We have to choose between our future and the past." Obama's hitting the I'm a uniter not a divider theme hard.

I am going to be really happy with either candidate. Damn, he won a hell of a lot of states.

Damn, Obama's 2 to 1 in Minnesota. Missouri remains seat of the edge close - 49 clinton; 48 obama. Nail biter.

Whoa, he's giving a speech kind of like Michelle Obama's. But she gave it better :)

I think Obama is going to lose California. But as long he can lose by 6 and still only be behind by 18 delegates in Cali.

"When I'm president, I will put an end to the politics of fear."

Here's the organizer's call - "we need you, we need you to prove that ordinary people can still do extraordinary things in America."

Oh, this is a beautiful speech - he's hitting it. Hitting the organizer meme. In the shadow of a closed steel factory. Oh, this is why I love Obama. He has done the work. He has been there through the struggle and the fight and he is a surviver. He burns with the bright intensity of hope. He has the best deep narrative. "You see the challenges we face will not be solved with one meetin in one night. . . Change will not come if we wait for some other person, or if we wait for some other time. We are the ones we've been waiting for. We are the change that we seek. We are the hope of those boys who have so little.

We are the hope of the father who goes to work before dawn and lies awake with doubt that he cannot give the child the future he would like. Yes he can.

We are the hope of the future, the answer to the cynics who tell us that our house must stand divided, we know we have seen something happen over the last several weeks, over the past several months. we know that what begins as a whisper is now a whisper. is a hymn that will heal this nation, will repair the world, make this time different than all the rest.

Let's go to work! Yes we can!!!"

Wow, the crescendoing of the speech was powerful - THIS is really the continuation of his 04 speech, in the same vein and with the same passion and hope. I got all teary. At the end, his rhythm was King-like, lilting and like a lullabye.

Oh I am fired up. I love Obama, I am beginning to love Clinton. It's a good thing to be in love.

The other thing that is transparent is that McCain had a hard time winning his own state and that conservatives are really turned off by him. HE's essentially going to have to pick someone like Huck to be his running mate. Huckabee has done a phenomenonal job of winning states for someone who doesn't have an organization or money. Romney must be pissed. And I can't think that McCain is too thrilled because he wanted to be coronated tonight.

Jamal Simmons makes a really great point that most Americans have been able to make a choice and have a voice in the process, so they don't have to feel like just another candidate was rammed down their throats.

Oh my! Obama is pulling ahead in Missouri. It's so close. . . he's now at 49% she's at 48% with 98% votes in.

AZ- Clinton.

In colorado Obama literally doubles Clinton's vote. Ditto Minnesota. doubled in Illinois.

California for Clinton. We'll see what the delegate count is. One of the most disturbing things is that when CNN flashed the exit polls by race in Cali, they included us. And the APIA community voted overwhelmingly for Clinton. like 3 to 1. My friend said that they thought it was because of race. Please please please let it not be race. Latinos voted for Obama percentage-wise more than us...

Freaking sweet - Obama won 11 of 22 states. Fantastic.

Alaska - Obama is winning.

Missouri - AP had called this for Clinton a long time ago, but Obama's still ahead and there's only 67 precinct out of 3371 left.

Damn, 80% of Idaho primary voters went for Obama.

Wow, the AP UN-called Missouri for Clinton. And now we have less than 20 precincts left, and Obama is up by about 7500 votes.

wow, Obama has won 13 states to Clinton's 8 so far. Also Carrie at the politico emails Ben Smith to say on the Missouri confusion:

Sen. Claire McCaskill was in the Hyatt ballroom, telling reporters and politicians (Durbin) to ignore the call for Clinton in Missouri. Apparently the same happened during her 2006 election night win. Within a half hour, Obama pulled ahead in the state.

Exciting. This is so much better than football.

CNN projects Missouri for Obama. Sweet! It's based on the fact that only St Louis precincts have yet to report back, but the city is going for him by over 60%.

OUCH CNN pundit says, there's no good way to spin it if you're Romney - just that you have "really good hair".

My Feb 5th predictions

Some might call it foolhardy to try to predict where 22 frakkin' states will go, but I am just such a crazy person. Consider that Obama has more of a 50 state strategy and a focus on bringing out new and infrequent voters, training them to become precinct captains, while Hillary generally relies on the institutional support of established machines.

Here's where I think votes will break, based upon the information that we have a week before the elections. (Yes, this is strict vote count, not delegates. Even I am not that crazy or sleep-deprived. Even the major news organizations can't agree on how many delegates each candidate has!) But if you are interested, the AP has a list of how many delegates each state has, and Marc Ambinder has a handy tipsheet.

What are my predictions based on? Strength of endorsements/field operations/staff, general intuition, info from people on the ground, newspaper endorsements, polls and conjecture (in rough order.) Caveat: I'm no pundit, and it's mighty hard to predict turnout especially in this year's election given the unprecedented turnout so far. This is why I put less faith in most polls.

Let's also keep in mind that there's terrible weather today - snow in Missouri, tornados in the South. This might put a dampen on Obama's incredible new voter turnout.

Oh yeah, and my GOP prediction is pretty easy - McCain will win majority of the delegates and consolidate lead, causing true conservatives to weep. Now, onto the meat! :

Alabama - toss up. African American voters make up more than a quarter (26%) of the voting population, and should be enough to put him over the top, but keep in mind that Clinton got the endorsement of the entire Alabama Democratic Caucus.

Alaska - Obama. Alaska is an independent minded state more like New Hampshire and he has the support of the former Democratic Governor Tony Knowles. Also Obama has bothered showing up here, which like Idaho, means something to people who are usually ignored.

Arkansas - Clinton. This is her home state (one of many), and Walmart is the largest employer. She was on their Board and the Walmart tentacles are long and tight.

Arizona - tossup. This is a more conservative state that is defined by libertarian values and McCain "go it alone" qualities. But it's culturally much more like Nevada than New Hampshire. Even though Obama has congressman Grijalva and Governor Janet Napolitano, and his immigration policies are more progressive than Clinton's. And in a border state like Arizona, that might unfortunately be the difference.

California - Tossup. When I first wrote this, I had Hillary by 5, but this was before SEIU and Maria Shriver. She has a huge advantage in having wrapped up pretty much ALL of the major institutional support, but Obama has a wicked field team here. And the Field Poll, which is the most important predictor of voter turnout, has Clinton 36 - Obama 34, which is within the margin of error. Maria Shriver's surprise endorsement is going to make up whatever nonstatistical difference, if not put him over the top. We'll see what SEIU in California is able to do for Obama after getting into the game so late (switching from Edwards.) Clinton has Senators Boxer and Feingold but if you note who in Congress has endorsed, you'll see a lot of Pelosi's key lieutenants - George Miller, Eshoo, Becerra.

Also, although the Farmworkers endorsed Hillary, this is hardly a ringing endorsement. They are mostly in California, so it's important symbolically but most of their members are not documented and can't vote. It's another in a long line of "Yes, but. . ." endorsements for Hills, whereas Obama's full-throated endorsements mean something. Just look at poor old Teddy Kennedy traipsing all over and working his heart out. Personally, I even think he called in a favor to Maria to get her to come out.

Asian Americans make up 11% of the vote, almost twice as much as African Americans. The latino vote makes up almost a third of the voters, so we'll see if Teddy Kennedy can carry it.

Lastly, Obama got the newspaper endorsements in Cali all wrapped up including the two largest papers in SF and LA. That's worth a percent or two. But California is traditionally considered Clinton Country, and she has the star names - LA and SF mayors,

Colorado - tossup. Hillary has some staff who ran incredibly effective political operations in the state, so they know the lay of the land like nothing else.

Connecticut - Clinton. This state re-elected Joe LIEberman (Independent), who has endorsed John McCain. Plus its other Senator is Chris Dodd, who I think shocked the political world by coming out strong on netroots issues. Dodd isn't endorsing anyone after dropping out, which is probably because he wants to run for Majority Leader and can't afford to piss off his base - the netroots, which is pro-Obama/anti-Clinton. Obama has the endorsements of 2 congresscritters, but Rosa DeLauro endorsed late, after switching from Edwards.

Delaware- tossup. This state is home to some our most conservative and boring Democratic Senators - Biden and Carper. Huge crowds did turnout for both Obamas, and the electorate is close to one fifths African American.

Georgia - Obama by 10 or more. The substantial African American vote here (28%) will break for him, and let's not forget that Atlanta is the vote capital. They've elected and even re-elected Cynthia McKinney, who is an out Green.

Idaho - Obama. Yeah. Surprised the hell out of me that 10-15 thousand people even lived in Idaho, much less would turn out for Obama, but the proof is in the photos. And that's an awful lot of white people coming out for Obama, more than probably turn out for football games. Don't forget that people in so-called flyover country really appreciate it when you visit.

Illinois - Obama by more than 20. In between being a very popular home state Senator and having the lockup of the Daley machine, to the degree that even Clintonista Congressman Rahm Emmanuel won't formally endorse, he's got it wrapped up.

Kansas - Obama. This is his technical home state, and incredibly popular Democratic (some might say post-partisan) Gov. Kathleen Sebelius came out for Obama. This woman has completely turned Kansas around and elected Democrats all over.

Massachusetts - Obama. He's got the two Senators, Kerry and Kennedy, and the support of the state's first African American governor, Deval Patrick. Of course, the senators are travelling all over the country instead of staying at home to lock in support. It'll be tighter than expected because Clinton got the mayor and chair of Boston's city council, half the state's Congressional delegation, and both leaders in the state leg. but don't forget the huge college population - and the youth vote is solidly in Obama's base.

Minnesota - Obama. Minnesota's DFL is one of the most progressive and open state parties. The state elected our very first and only (so far) African American Muslim Congressman. They elected Paul Wellstone, activist and professor, and the general populace are notorious for liking the independents - Jesse Ventura anyone? Plus they have a decent field operation, and Mee Moua supports Barack, like many of the new Hmong American leaders who see in him their own scrappy refugee experience.

Missouri - tossup. Senator McCaskill endorsed, and strongly, which should help amongst female voters. But the racial politics in Missouri are crazy bad. A lot of people will be watching as this is a bellweather state that has picked the candidate repeatedly. African Americans make up 11% of the vote, and Hill has former Rep. dick Gephardt's support.

New Jersey - Hillary. She's got all the institutional support here - from the Gov on down. Obama has the still popular fmr. Gov Codey, but this is a state that is heavily influenced by NY (wether or not it wants to admit it) and

New Mexico - Clinton. Richardson has studiously avoided endorsing either Obama or Clinton, which is a HUGE shocker since for most of the primary campaign he seemed to be openly jockeying for a veep position in the Clinton Cabinet, Part Deux. But I guess he genuinely likes Obama and is trying to give him a chance. Given that a big part of Richardson's resume rests on his time in the Dept of Energy and as UN Ambassador, both as Bill's appointee. If anyone in the endorsements game owes the Clintons anything, it's Richardson. So I am officially giving him some props here for holding out. Can't be easy given their history. (And Lord knows I do not love Richardson for his mishandling of the Wen Ho Lee affair.)

New York - Hillary by 15 or more. Upstate will break her way, and the city will be more of a fight, but most of the machine belongs to her, and the unions endorsed her. NY NOW apparently is ready and willing to castrate Teddy Kennedy for her. Obama will get the creative vote, not that it'll be broken down like that in the exit polls. Also, the NY Asian American institutions like John Liu support Hills.

North Dakota - Obama. Senator Johnson endorsed him, and so did former Senator Daschle, former Majority Leader.

Oklahoma - tossup.

Tennessee- Clinton. she has more endorsements and a stronger staff. While African Americans make u[p 16 % of the vote, she has poured energy into securing this state.

Utah - tossup. There's a large Mormon population, so Romney should be getting it for the other [party. But Obama actually has opened up an office here - talk about 50 state strategy!

CNN debate - Hillary v Obama

Ok, liveblogging begins now. My thoughts are in italics.

Very civil intros by Obama and Clinton. She didn't look like she was prepared for such a civil intro and had to do a copycat intro. Both did an appeal to Edwards. Hillary looks really good - the brown turquoise mix is nice, and Obama also looks good. hillary looks better than normal though.

First q: what are policy differences?
Hillary has a healthcare program like edwards; Obama doesn't have a universal healthcare proposal, it's voluntary but creates incentives for people to buy. [this is the one area that I feel like he should and could be stronger. Hillary's is closer to universal; Edwards had the best.]

OH! Obama is taking a swipe at Hillary on the drug company profits and lobbyists when he says that it should be broadcast on C-Span and that it will be transparent. The audience seems to be more with Hillary - she got off a good point on how she did success in getting S-CHIP for children's healthcare. She's got some sharp talking points on healthcare and she's clearly comfortable discussing the finer points since she has experience debating it.

[Ed Helms from Daily Show and the Office is in the crowd.]

wow, she is referencing local issues and also electronic records.

IMMIGRATION:
OOOh, first question is a divid and conquer wedge about negative consequences of immigration on African American community. Senator Obama, do you want to go first?

Nice, he makes the point that as a community organizer, he worked with white, black, Latino and Asian workers, and they have always felt economically insecure. "To suggest somehow that the economic insecurity that we see now, somehow, is attributable to immigration, I do not believe it. I think it is an instance of scrapegoating [big applause.] Now, here's where we're different from the other party.. . I do believe we have to crack down on employers . . . We should not use immigration as a tool to divide" [huge applause] Excellent response that calls it out as the wedge question it is.

Followup question for Clinton: driver's licenses.

Hillary: "I believ ein many parts of our country, because of employers who exploit workers, there are job losses, and I think we should be honest about that." References comprehensive immigration reform.

We've got to say, "come out of the shadows" for the vast majority of people who here.

Do I think we ought to talk about privileges like driver's licenses? I think we need to talk about the masic labor problems first.

Obama: when this issue came up, not drivers' license but comprehensive oimmigration reform generall, I worled with Ted Kennedy, dick durbin, and John McCain, although he might not admit it now. This might not be an issue that polls well, ut I think it is the right thing to do. It is important for us to recognize that the problems that workers are experiencing generally are not caused by immigration.

Children who were brought here through no fault of their own are able to go to college, so that they can get a good education and a good job. I don't believe we ned to deal with this issue as we sid before, because people don't come here to drive, people come here to work. [applause] NICE!

Wolf: were you missing in action when Obama and Kennedy and Durbin were

Well actually I cosponsored comprehensive immigration reform in 2004 before Senator Obama came to the Senate. So I have been on the forefront of these issues. References farmworkers' endorsement. NICE. Knows her audience.

so we may be looking at the immigration issue as a political issue, by those who are undermining . . .

WOW, Clinton has an amazingly good talking point - "I hear this all the time from people, and they often ask it with an edge in their voice, just like Kim, and so I ask them, "What would you do? Would you round up and deport 10,000 people and their families? and how many additional Border Patrol authorities would you have to hire for that? ow would you do it?" [I think this is a really strong point - people who complain don't have an answer to this.]

Why not then, if you're that passionate about it, let them get drivers licenses.

We disagree on this, because and I believe it is a diversion from creating a coalition of those who are trying to get comprehensive immigration reform.

Senator Clinton gave a number of answers over the course of six weeks on this issue, and that did appear political. Now she has a consistent answer, and that is good. From my perspective, I agree with Bill Richardson, from a public safety issue, and I dont want a bunch of It's important to recognize that this can be tough, and we need someone who can tackle it and solve it.

She's doing really well, and Obama and Clinton got off good shots at Romney.

Obama smartly avoids diminishing accomplishments of Clinton administration.

Her bigggest line of the night: "You know it did take a Clinton to clean up after the first Bush, and it might take a Clinton to clean up after the second Bush." [long, sustained applause]

Wow, Hillary just sounds more presidential. She doesn't even really engage Obama she mostly hits on Bush as though she is the frontrunner. She is returning to that campaign default of the incumbent's stance. She's also addressing the people from Politico who ask questions with their names, which makes her seem more personable. (Yes, it's also a stalling tactic to figure out what you want to say.)

[Tobey MacGuire's in the audience.]

Clinton's giving her answer on why she didn't vote for the Levin Amendment, and she sounds insincere and she's grasping.

Ugh, she sounded really good, and now she is just boring me. I think that Obama has the audience on Iraq "I think it is important to be RIGHT on day one."

Well, I guess it's good that this doesn't have as much sniping and fireworks as the GOP debate - I think both of them are still going to come out looking presidential.

ON TOO MUCH SEX & VIOLENCE ON TV:
OBama: The primary responsibility is for parents. [audience of writers, actors, hollywood types clap. Speilberg is in audience and nods. I think that was Stevie Wonder who clapped and nodded.]

OUCH! If you can't control your spouse on the campaign trail, what will it be like in the White House? [audience groans, boos]
Hillary takes responsibility for all the decisions, says "she is fully prepared to [make the call]". "At the end of the day it's a lonely job in the White House." [lots of applause]

DREAM TICKET question [audience really likes this, both candidates laugh] - would you consider an Obama-Clinton or a Clinton-Obama ticket?:

Obama; well, obviously there's a big difference between the two. I respect Senator Clinton a lot, we've been travelling this road together. I think it would be premature and presumptious to be talking about vice presidents.

Clinton: "Well, I would have to agree with everything Barack just said. This has been an extraordinary campaign, and both of us has been overwhelmed by all the affection." Shills her nationwide townhall.

Well, that's it - it wasn't very divisive, it was sorta boring, and they I think were both conscious that any of their statements could be used in an attack ad against either of them by the GOP in the summer and fall. It was really quite civil. I think this was almost a draw, and that both of them got in good passionate reasons why they would be good. But I have to say I think Senator Clinton came off better, slightly more presidential. And this has nothing to do with my personal preferences, I was just watching to see who did better. Obama had a lot of "uhms" and pauses whereas Hillary came out strong and confident in most of her responses. She sounded quite sure of herself and presidential for the most part, especially the beginning segments. I started getting really bored in the latter half, and I don't doubt that most people did as well (and they're not even as political as me.)

Anyway, I thought this was a much more cohesive, about the issues debate than the GOP one and voters will look at the two and think, who would I prefer running our country? And they would have to say the Democrats.

Also, I really don't think that Obama would put Clinton as his vp, and it wouldn't do him any favors electorally because all the people who would vote for her would vote for him - he has a broader appeal. Clinton, on the other hand might. But I think she can't afford to have someone who doesn't have actual military experience.

Ugh, the more I think about it, the more I think that Clinton got the better in this debate - when Obama said that Clinton would certainly be on anyone's short list, she just said "I agree with everything that Obama said." So she didn't necessarily have to mean that she thought Obama would also be an excellent vp, just that she would be on anyone's short list. Also, she wouldn't necessarily be willing to be a vp having had the White House experience. But as some of the CNN commentators noted, she would probably be willing to float the idea of an Obama vp just to gain some additional voters.

Update: Is it possible that people who watched only half the debate thought that Hillary won? I think that one of the things that charmed people was that Obama was perfectly courteous. I'm not sure if he was trying to show himself as being above the Clinton fray of war, but I thought that his performance on healthcare was really weak. I thought his immigration stances were spot on, but that Clinton was more forceful with her stances, even if I don't agree with them. Also, what was this drivers licenses are risky for immigrants bit? No one seems willing to touch it, not even her top surrogate in the Latino community, the Los Angeles Mayor.

But you know, it was nice to hear some real passion in her voice when she was talking about immigration, some real heat. Even Wolf acknowledged it. It's like how she looked when she was first asked that question about drivers licenses. She looked raw emotionally, and I could see her internal struggle - the struggle between what she really believes, and what she knows is politically popular. Now she seems to have reconciled it all, relegated drivers licenses for immigrants to the trashheap of unpopular ideas, and she's not willing to fight for it, for us. I don't actually disagree with her assessment that drivers license are a wedge issue that the Republicans use to drive up fear and hostility, and I think that immigrants rights advocates could be doing a better job of discussing drivers licenses, or pushing Dream Act more. I thought Obama did a great job when he said, "people don't come to this country to drive, they come here to work."

And I also hear that edge in people's voices when they ask that question about immigrants taking "our" jobs. There are things like that which remind me that Hillary's real and that she cares, but then just as quickly she turns the corner and puts on her mask, and does battle with the forces of what's popular and what's not, and at the end of the day, I don't know if she's fighting for what's right anymore, or just fighting to save her political hide. I want someone who is going to lead on immigration, because it's not a popular issue. It's thorny and as contentious and personal as anything, and I want someone with the moral certitude and willingness to go to bat for those who are voiceless. That someone is Obama.

Obama was perfectly genteel. I think he may have disarmed Hillary in the beginning with his intro, and she seemed really surprised, as if she had been ready to attack. And as if she was really happy that the cool kid had validated her.

Hillary could not explain her vote for Iraq in any passable way with a straight face.

One of the things that I noticed about the end of the debate is that Obama went immediately to the crowd, which was lining up and piling up to reach and touch him. Hillary stayed on stage with her daughter and husband. Perhaps she didn't think she would have that type of reaction?

Change is in the air in SC - liveblogging speeches

So Obama won 55, Hillary 27, and Edwards 18. This means that about 3/4ths of the people who voted voted for change.

Damn, Obama is taking a lot of talking points from Edwards. One friend asled, "did Edwards just give Obama his victory speech and say, 'Hey man, you can take it?'" Lots of economic populism in here.

He seems really exhausted, and this is kind of a depressing speech. Obama doesn't even look happy. This is full of digs at Hillary, and not very subtle, like against those who would "say anything, do anything to win." He needs to bring it back to the hope. He doesn't look like it's a victory speech, he looks angry and upset.

He flat out looks like he's been crying. He has some lines like Dean, and the difference in perception by others is HUGE - between an angry white man and an angry black man.



Ok, he is finally getting into the swing of things, and he is getting cocky at the end. Damn, that line about the woman who worked for Strom Thurmond who doorknocked for him is good. Why is he only getting into the swing of things and upswing at the end? He has more heft and authority to his voice now, it's stronger. He only cracks a smile toward the end, and Michelle gets on the stage and she makes him smile more. She looks fantastic. Obama is saying something strongly in her ear.

It has some King references, some Edwards references, and lots of very patriotic imagery. almost a 30 percent victory, which is really impressive in a Southern state.

Wow, the turnout was expected to be 300,000 and it was over half a million! The CNN exit polling also shows:

# Obama took more than 80 percent of African-American vote, polls show
# He had support of nearly a quarter of white voters; Clinton, Edwards split remainder
# Polls showed Obama winning majorities across nearly all demographic groups
# Clinton won among voters older than 65, Obama won 18- to 64-year-olds

Edwards is speaking - he did much better than in Nevada, and he is to be congratulated. Edwards strangely looks less tired and angry than Obama even though he came in third. But he did manage to take a large chunk of voters woho would have gone Hillary. Edwards has a strong and upbeat message. He looks young and fresh but his message is not that interesting because he is saying lots of things he has said before. Nice, I am liking this double-teaming by Edwards and Obama. This is interesting because he's not bashing anyone.

OMG the other crazy thing is that ALL the CNN analysts have nice things to say about Obama. From Donna brazile to Bill Bennett to other people. NO ONE has said anything bad about him - I haven't seen this kind of "balanced" reporting since FOX News. LOLS! By the way, Billary's race-baiting has pushed Donna Brazile squarely into Obama's camp - Brazile is rattling off Obama's talking points on the politics of hope, bam bam bam. She doesn't have to say that she is pro Obama, it shows. Bill has really done her wrong on this.

hillary's voice in Tennessee is raw. She's PO'd. And what was the woman who introduced her wearing?!?! And why isn't she even speaking from South Carolina, such a diss. She's not even giving her speech from South Carolina, she clearly doesn't care. She even gave iowa the middle finger after she lost. She discarded South Carolina like last night's bad sushi, and how can we expect her to care about the rest of the country?!? Hillary is really pushing the Florida thing. It is kind of sad because even HER crowd doesn't laugh at her lame jokes. she is just not a funny woman. and her crowd isn't even fired up.

HAHAHAHAHAHA!!! Now she;s trying to throw a bone to the students at young people in Tennessee when she had tried to prevent them from voting in Iowa. Who's the scary gothic blond chick behind her. The people behind her look totally bored. They look like they are trying to just stay awake. (!!!) What the fuck is she talking about? We've been privileged and benefited from what? This is MUCH more boring than Edward's speech

OH MY GOD, Wolf Blitzer just rudely cut her off and minimized her on the screen saying "Hillary is now going into her stump speech"!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Then CNN flashed a sign saying "To continue watching Clinton live, go to cnn.politics.com" I have not seen anything that funny on tv in a really long time.

Damn, Carl Bernstein hates Hillar calling it "one of the worst nights of her life."

Also even the white woman Gloria borger is saying that Obama has had HUGE turnout, and the guy next to her says that Obama's turnout has been bigger than McCain and huckabee combined.

John Edwards is doing live interview with Blitzer. Very Johnny Sunshine. Did a GREAT job on deflecting the Florida/Michigan DNC delegates question and got back to how he's in it for the people "who need a voice in this country." Wolf is giving him major softballs.

OMG, if Edwards isn't AG, and Dean can't stay as DNC Chair, then I want Edwards for DNC Chair.

Plus, Obama got endorsed by Caroline Kennedy in the NYT: A President Like My Father.

Sometimes it takes a while to recognize that someone has a special ability to get us to believe in ourselves, to tie that belief to our highest ideals and imagine that together we can do great things. In those rare moments, when such a person comes along, we need to put aside our plans and reach for what we know is possible.

We have that kind of opportunity with Senator Obama. It isn’t that the other candidates are not experienced or knowledgeable. But this year, that may not be enough. We need a change in the leadership of this country — just as we did in 1960.

Sweet. PLus apparently Hillary is scared of losing Teddy Kennedy to Obamania.

and Bob herbert is pisssssssed.

Democratic South Carolina debate thoughts

Wow, this was the hardest hitting Democratic debate so far.

First, why do all the (mostly white) political commentators keep saying, wow, race is being talked about? or "Wow, race is an issue" like dumbasses?!?! It's a lil ridiculous folks. Obama self-identifies as black, but also as global. Of course we;re going to talk about race. (And a big thank you goes to Howard Dean.)

What was interesting is that the format of the debate was formal debate with moderator in the first half, candidates in chairs without rules for the second half. Weirdly, the first half had more hard-hitting back and forth and some moments where audience members (and I) went "ouch!" at candidate's statements. But in the chairs, the three candidates (Edwards, Hillary and Obama) were more relaxed and actually exchanged boxing gloves for white ones of civility.

Hillary was really throwing a lot of stuff at Obama, and I was semi-surprised that Edwards also piled onto Obama with her, landing harder punches esp on the healthcare stuff.

Edwards, again, hits Obama with greater dexterity than Hillary manages, this time on single-payer:

The problem with this argument is you can make exactly the same argument about Social Security," he says of Obama's plan not to insist that everyone buy health care.

Hillary piles on, to make her case: "This is kind of like the present vote[s]."

Obama responds on a point that's very much subject to how much the plan winds up costing: whether or not a mandate will be "affordable enough."

I have to say again that I was kinda surprised by Edwards landing these blows, and that it seemed the tactical and tacit alliance between Edwards and Obama that seemed to be in place earlier has switched. I don't know why it's switched now, in a state like South Carolina, in front of a predominantly black voting audience, but it has. And it doesn't look good. I understand that Edwards' campaign might be pissed for personal reasons about the UNITE HERE endorsement, esp since the union's former chief of staff is an Edwards adviser, but I'm pretty sure it goes beyond that. Edwards has an anti-Hillary line, and anti-establishment line, and he started hitting Obama after Obama's endorsement and subsequent rollout of ads on his behalf because well, Obama was definitely hitting Edwards and Hillary on independent expenditures by unions.

Nobody saw that one coming: Edwards — for tactical reasons, or out of pure courtroom instinct — pressed Clinton's assault on Obama's "present" votes, and the question — unanswered at that point — of why Obama hadn't just voted "no."

"You criticize Hillary, you criticize me for our votes," he said, trying to deny Obama the moral high ground he'd sought.

Edwards asked "why you voted present, rather than yes or no, when you had a chance to vote up or down," he said.

Obama responded that the present votes were meant to signal "technical problems with a piece of legislation" he might otherwise have voted for, or, in other cases, strategy -- a response that's borne out in many of the cases they're talking about but doesn't help with the broader case that there's a gap between the clarity of his rhetoric and the pragmatism of his politics. (Though whether that's a problem is a different question.)

Edwards was really convincing and eloquent on this one, and I know it landed. Ouch.

A particularly BAD moment for Obama was when he said that he has "never been for universal health care." Bad for Democratic activists to here, and bad for him to say. I understand he's still trying to appeal to the general election voter, but when even a high profile, nonpartisan and well-trusted (for some reason) group like the AARP is saying that we need universal healthcare, I think it is TOTALLY OKAY to say we need universal health care. There's a lot of room there for some primary attack ads, and it's a hard thing to back down from in a general election with the GOP. As someone who is really passionate about health care, it was a pretty disheartening moment.

Hillary tried to pull a "Obama voted against the war but then voted for funding it", which would have paralleled John Kerry's own admission "I voted for it before I voted against it" except I don't think that punch landed so much. I thought Obama did a good job of defusing the question of whether he thought "Bill Clinton was indeed the first black president" by saying that:

First, cleverly, he linked Clinton to Edwards, casting him not as a unique figure, but as one of many honorable white sons of the South who eschewed racism.

Then:

"I would have to investigate more Bill’s dancing ability and some of this other stuff before I accurately judged whether he was, in fact, a brother," Obama said, to laughter.

"I'm sure that can be arranged," Hillary responded.

This was smart, funny, and honors the white allies and detracts from white (liberal) guilt. This was in the second half when they were all seated, and Obama definitely tried to de-escalate the tension levels.

If I had to pick one person who won, I would actually say Edwards, because he got to point at the bickering children on stage and ask if their bickering was going to get children the health care that they deserve. So he got to rise above. But it was clear that the audience was with Obama and I wonder if the image of a black candidate being attacked from both sides by white candidates, one female, one male, won't be burnt into the eye sockets of many South Carolina voters.

One might ask what the difference between this and Clinton complaining last summer that the boys were ganging up on her because she was female (which I wasn't particularly sympathetic to - she was the national FRONT RUNNER by money, staff, and endorsements then, and that is what happens - it's simply smart politics) is that Obama isn't the clear national frontrunner. He is only the front-runner in SC. In fact, I would bet that although Obama has built a 50 state strategy, training and recruiting people who have never been involved in politics before, along Dean's ideals (having the resources to do so, unlike Edwards), Hillary still has better national name recognition, for better or worse. Time will tell whether his recruits are more or less adept than Dean's. And she has the Democratic establishment behind her especially in delegate-rich NY and CA. So it's not quite a toss up, but more analysis later.

NEXT UP: McCain Gets Swiftboated

New Hampshire iconoclasts

The culture of New Hampshire is that they are iconoclasts, they swerve rights when Iowa goes left. There's a reason why the libertarians want to move en masse to New Hampshire and make it a truly "free" state.

So what happened? How did the Obama bump from Iowa disappear in a 39-36 win for Hillary? In a word, Hillary showed some emotion. As I stated in an earlier post, it's what people have been wanting to see from her. And it was a game changer - the women's vote made the race.

Here's TNR's take on the demographics:

Here are the groups in which Obama enjoyed a significant margin over Clinton: men, young voters (18-24), voters making more than $50,000, voters with post-graduate education (a good indication of professionals), independents, first time voters, voters without religious affiliation, men without children and single men, voters who said they were getting ahead financially, voters who thought the war in Iraq was the most important issue, who wanted change, and who wanted someone who could unite the country.

Here are Clinton's groups: women, particularly married women, voters over 40, voters making less than $50,000, voters without a college degree, union voters, Democrats, Catholics (an important constituency for the Democrats), people very worried about the economy, voters who thought the economy was most important, voters who valued experience, and voters who evaluated candidates on whether they "care about people like me."

And politicalwire (Taeggan goddard) writes that "Two key factors for Clinton making this a close race: Unlike Iowa, she's beating Obama among women and there are more older voters."

As we know from Iowa, Obama's support by age group groups off about 20 per 20 year bracket. So that he only wound up with 18% of the senior vote. This is I think emblematic of how much or how little our elders are willing to change, and perhaps of how some views are deeply entrenched. On the other hand votes for Hillary are a vote for change on the most basic level, since she would be the first female president. But she is staunchly an establishmentarian to the core.

But let's analyze deeper - New Hampshire is a state that's favorable to female candidates - the former Governor Jeanne Shaheen now running for Senate (in Clinton's camp), Congresswoman Carol Shea-Porter (in Obama's camp). Sadly, these are the only two women who have been elected to major federal or executive offices in NH but it's better than Iowa.

Iowa, not so much. Iowa has never elected a female senator, never elected a female Congressmember, nor a female Governor.

Let's also consider that Karen Hicks, who built Dean's political campaign in New Hampshire in 2004, has strong ties to Shaheen and to the state. And she knows how to work magic. Plus there is definitely an ex-New Yorker factor in New Hampshire, as well as New Yorkers who own a vacation home up there. (This is undoubtedly a tiny percentage and not something that would account for a 3 percent win.)

Also, I really don't think Edwards bashing Clinton for being too emotional helped. I also didn't like when Hillary said after one debate that all the guys were beating up on her - it's what you do when there's a frontrunner. But I think the reason why I was more willing to accept that there was some genuine emotion in Hillary's display this time is because well, just because she deftly incorporated some talking points into her emotion doesn't mean that the emotion's not there, or that it's not valid. I argue in talking points sometimes, especially on immigration, but I feel it full force.

For my analysis of the upcoming race, go here.

PS: Heads up on the new anti-Obama 527.

PPS: Hello to the folks from Burston-Marsteller (aka, Mark Penn's crappy corporate PR umbrella shill firm which represents Big Tobacco amongst other killers.) I'm mightily amused. I can say I've gotten hits from other nations that haven't amused me as much as this one.

Wow, game on!

So the New Hampshire results are back in, and it turns out that Hillary's tearing up in a public setting did get her the female vote, overwhelmingly. And it means that this is really game on, as we move to Nevada, where a large number of voters are union members and the Culinary Workers Union's endorsement has the impact of a 16 wheeler.

Nevada is a conservative culture, more so than New Hampshire, and in the gambling towns, it's a 24-7 culture, a mix of greed, necessity, survival and personal destruction. It has a large Latino and Asian American population, two ethnic votes that are definitely the swing votes. It's mostly desert and basically, politically combustible. If I had to predict who Nevadans would go for, I would say Clinton. But if the culinary workers go for Obama, then all bets are off.

Also, I cannot strongly emphasize enough how important the APIA vote in Nevada is - if the race there is decided by a few percentage points, we will have surely made the difference. Also don't forget that the APIA leaders in Nevada are mostly in Clinton's camp, but that many of the Asian Americans who are in Nevada work in the casinos, and moved from California. I would even venture that Nevada, not South Carolina, is Clinton's next firewall. That being said, I know that Clinton's campaign considered New Hampshire her firewall, and they managed to stay afloat in it. (Read my analysis of how they won.)

---> BREAKING: Nevada SEIU endorses Obama. This is a pretty clear indicator of where the Culinary workers' union will go, and where the national unions will go.
This means that progressive labor is going hard for Obama as the anti-Hillary, driven by a distrust of her time as a Wal-Mart board member, and her chief advisor (other than Bill), Mark Penn.

South Carolina is a values state, where religion is held dearly, and where the large African American population (expected to form half the voting population) might be expected to vote for Obama, but for the historic Clinton love. Right after Iowa, Obama was polling at 50 to Clinton's 30, but that may even out a bit more. However, having someone who was frequently referred to as "the first black president" dissing the potential REAL first black president, isn't going to play well. And Donna Brazile, who is as insider as they come, fires back at Bill for calling Obama a "fairy-tale." Brazile compares his words to that of Bill Bennett (!!!!)

I could understand his frustration at this moment. But, look, he shouldn't take out all his pain on Barack Obama. It's time that they regroup. Figure out what Hillary needs to do to get her campaign back on track. It sounds like sour grapes coming from the former commander in chief. Someone that many Democrats hold in high esteem. For him to go after Obama, using a fairy tale, calling him as he did last week. It's an insult. And I will tell you, as an African-American, I find his tone and his words to be very depressing.

Pretty harsh, but justifiably. Bill Clinton was the attack dog, and he looks dog-tired, and he's kinda talking down to what looks like a college student. It's kinda catty, but not uglier than what the GOP is going to throw. I agree with Brazile's judgement though - it's pretty depressing to watch the former president taint his glory in this fashion.

I think that Edwards has fought valiently, and pushed issues that other people would never have brought up otherwise, injecting a healthy dose of economic populism into the mix, and standing up for those who cannot stand up for themselves. I also wonder if it might not be time for him (and definitely Richardson) to reconsider remaining in the race. I am sure that they will both hang on until Feb 5th, just to see where the chips fall, but this is up to the campaigns themselves.

For my analysis of what happened in New Hampshire, click here.