Liveblogging the Texas debate

Ok, keep in mind that the candidates were speaking so fast, and sometimes over each other, here is my best job, and I tried to clean it up a bit but my hands are tired from trying to type at warp speed. So some things are lost and others are in shorthand. Jeez, I wish blogger came with a find and replace all since certain terms like comprehensive immigration reform kept coming up . . . so tiring to type it all out. My thoughts during the debate, then in italics below. During debate, italics are for the questions from the journos. [Ed. update: I have been pwned - check CNN's transcripts, so much better than mine. Ed voice #2: I don't get PAID for this!]

Opening remarks - Obama is doing good job of sharing anecdotes from Texas, Ohio and demonstrating that he "shares our pain", wants "America to be as good as our promise; clinton did a rote intro.

Cuba - Obama would meet with Castro's replacement, thinks that remittances are very important - [huge issue for all immigrants - this will score big points.]

Clinton says there has to be lots and lots of preparation and diplomatic work before I would do that.

Economy - Obama "you don't need an economist to tell you that people are working harder for less. . this has to be the priority of next president. what's said is that we need to restore a sense of fairness. Stop giving tax breaks to companies shipping jobs overseas and start giving those to companies who invest in America.

On trade deals, it's absolutely important that we engage not only through the lens of wall street, but also through the lens of main street. . . creating a green economy. we send a billion dollars to foreign countries every day because of our addiction to foreign oil.

Senator Clinton and I agree on many of these issues, and I think it's a credit to both of us that early on many of the other candidates agreed on many of these issues. the question we have to ask is how are we going to get it done? only if we are able to form working coalition for change. Priority that whoever the next president is. . ."

Clinton - "Talking about tax codes. the wealthy and well connected have had their president the past 7.5 years, i think it's time the rest of us had a president. . . We need a trade time out, see what's working, not working. i'd like to have a trade prosecutor to enforce the standards that we have."

Also need moratorium on home foreclosures I've met the families . . .the postal worker who really got hoodwinked, that really wasn't fair to him. I would have a 90 day moritorium so we can get it figured out, and have a 5 year freeze. [huge applause - I think that it was smart of her to brought up this issue because it is a huge concern of people's]

3 ways we need to jumpstart the economy : clean green jobs, $5 B investment would put hundreds of thousands of Americans to work, invest in infrastructure, we don't have enough we need to rebuild America and that will also put people to work, and finally we need to end George Bush's war on science, we need to think about how we fund the future. Think about everything that goes on at this great university to create the new economy.

On Immigration:

Q: federal raids by enforcement officials have generated fear and divided families would you consider stopping these raids?

Clinton - i would consider it except in egregious situations when it would be appropriate. but when we see what's happening babies being left w/ no one to take care of them, with children with no one left to come home to, that is not the America i know. that is against American values and it is a stark admission of failure by the American government. I have been for comprehensive immigration reform, signed onto the first bill.

tough, more secure boarders, of course, i'd like to see more fed help for austin and laredo that absorb healthcare, education, and enforcement costs. i personally would work with our neighbors to the south to create jobs there.

. . . path to legalization, bring out of shdows, pay fine, pay back taxes, and learning english. if they commited a crime in our country or country they came from then that;s a different story. I would introduce that in the first 100 days of my presidency. [major applause, and a smart move. Clinton now realizes she has to move left to recapture the votes that she's losing. Goddamn, she's smart and she truly is passionate about this issue.]

Obama - "couple things I would add - comprehensive immigration reform is something i worked on extensively. 2 yrs ago we were able to get the bill out of senate but it died in the House this year because it was used as a political football.

One, it is absolutely critical that we tone down the rhetoric when it comes to the immigration debate - the ugly undertone often directed at the Hispanic community, hate crimes skyrocketd in terms of . .

We are a nation of laws and a nation of immigrants and we can reconcile those two things. [I think this is a particularly strong point of his because it can mean all things to most people - it is like the term compassionate conservative - it can be the idea of human enforcement, it can be the idea that the middle is somewhere in between and it leaves it deliberately murky.]

We need comprehensive immigration reform, strong border security, cracking down on employers who are taking advantage of undocumented workers can't complain if not getting overtime and safety not being observed. but we have to do it in a way that makes sure people with Spanish surnames aren't being discriminated against.

We have to make sure undocumented workers learn english, pay a fine, but also that they go to the end of the line. [Here Obama is looking to the general election debates by inserting this and he smartly pivots to talking about the difficulties of LEGAL immigrants. This plays to APAs, a group that he has had problems with before, the Irish, Eastern Europeans, etc - very global] It is important that we fix LEGAL immigration system because right now we have a backlog that means years for people to apply legally. what's worse we keep increasing the fees, you've got hardworking immigrant family, they have to get an attorney and they just can't afford these things.

It's discriminatory against people with good character who we WANT in this country. We have to improve our relatoinship with Mexico and work with the mexican govt so their economy is producing jobs on that side of border. prob is we have Bush administration that came in promising all sorts of leadership on creating US-Mexico relationship but Bush is so obsessed with iraq that he hasn't been able to ensure that we work with Mexico.

Q: A controversial item that was not held up when the immigration debate collapsed. border fence. to many peopel it's a question of soverignty. but to many people its much more personal - livelihood, personal trade., rancher., walk or short drive to see family. would you commit to finish and speed up construcution. or you think it's time for the president of the US to say wait a minute?

clinton- i think both obama and i voted for that as part of immigration debate. i was at UT brownsville, and this is how absurd there is are it's approipritate. i think when both of us voted for it, we were voting for where there would be appropriate but with most things the bush admin has gone off deep end. there is a smart way to protect borders and a dumb way to protect borders. what i learn is that ut brownsville would have part of its campus cut off. i know it because i've been fighting with them about the northern border - interfering w families, trade. i would have review, listen to ppl who live on border. [applause]

but you know john, there's lots we've learned about technology and smart fencing. there is tech smart tech so that ppl can be supervising limited space and be responsive in terms of ppl crossing , eminent domain actions against homeowners and municipalities. there are places where after careful review and listening to ppl who live along border, let's deploy more tech and personel instead of physical barrier, will give us opp to secure border instead of interfering with family and business relations.

Obama - this is an area where Clinton and i almost agree. key is to consult with the interests whether personal or environmental, the bush admin is not real good at listening, not what they do well. i will reverse this policy, there may be areas where that makes sense, but tech, personell may be better appraoch. i think it is important for us to deal with prob in terms of 100,000s of ppl coming across border if we also want to provide opportunity for 12M undocumented who are already here. . . i think american ppl want fairness,want justice, i think they recognize the idea that you're going to deport 12 mil ppl is ridiculous, but they do also want order to process, we;re not going to be able to do things in isolation. we're not going to be able to deal with prob of 12 mil ppl in shadows and also ppls coming across border.

one last point I want to make on the immigration issue - something we can do immediately is to pass the Dream Act, which allows children who through no fault of their own are here [applause - smart move because it reinforces the idea of Obama as a father and makes voters think about their kids' futures]. . .

I do not want two classes of citizens here in this country, i want everyone to prosper.

Q: There are more than 30M ppl in this country who speak Spanish, many of them are right here. by the year 2050 there will be 130M Hispanics in the US, is there any downside in the US becoming bilingual nation, is there limit?

clinton - important for as many Americans as possible to do something i've never been able to, learn another language but it's important that English remain our ommon unifying language. brings country together in way we've seen generations of immigrants be part of american experience and pursue american dream., i've been adamantly against efforts by some to make english our official language.

we have 170 languages in nyc alone, and i do not think we should be discriminating against ppl who do not speak english who have to go to shops or use court system. so i encourage ppl become bilingual but i want to see english remain common unifying language of country.

obama- important that everyone learns english, binding together as country. also think every student should be learning second language, b/c when you start getting into debate about bilingual ed, i want to make sure children who are coming out of spanish speaking households don't fall behind but i also want to make sure english speaking students get to learn more than one langauge. Part of America's continuing leadership in the world is the ability to communicate across borers. one of failures of NCLB that lots of local and statae officials troubled by there;s emaphsis n standards pushing out a lot of learning that needs to take place. foreign lang is one of those areas neglected and i want to see more of it.

i would say, wait, we need to review this, there may be places wh . .

Clinton - I do not believe that the insurance companies should be able to make life or death decisions for America! [WHOA! This is straight u Edwards style populism]

Senator Edwards said that not having it [mandates] is like not having mandatory social Security or Medicare.

Understand that if you do not have a plan that starts out with universal health care, you will be nibbled to death! [wow]

Obama on health care: Says something about how he and Clinton both said they were for universal healthcare and at that time he was down 30 points in the polls, but now the political climate has evolved. I wasn't clear on what he was trying to say here. Was he saysing that now everyone wants universal healthcare?

Obama - It is clear that John Mccain does not understand the economy e=because he still supports President Bush's failed eocnomic poliic.es [ZING!]

Clinton - Right now we are borrowing money from the chinese to pay saudi arabia, i do not believe that is a good polciy. [Uhm, is this race baiting in two ways? way to go, you stay classy! also, you're borrowing money from Chinese BANKS not from the poor chinese laborers to pay Saudi Arabian oil firms.]

Moment of crisis -

Obama- I wouldn't point to single moment, but the trajectory of my whole life. I was raised by a single mom and my dad left when I was two. what is most important in my own life is lerning to take responsiblity for my own actions. working as a community organizer on streets of chicago. . .

Clintin - Well, i think everybody here knows I've lived through some crises and challenging moments in my life. and I am grateful the support and prayers of countless Amreicas. Ppl often ask me, how do you do it, how do you keep going, and i just have to shake my hed in wonderfment because with all the challenges i've had they are nothing compared with the challegnes of everyday aMericans.

You know, the hits i've taken in life are nothing compared to what goes on every in the lives of Americans, and I've resolved every single day that i've been blessed and i've resolved to do everything i can to give others those sme blessings, I was called by my faith and my upbringing , that's what motivates me that's what gets me up in the morning. no matter what happens in this contest, and you know I am honored, absolutely honored to be here with Barack Obama, [Obama shakes her hand] you know no matter what happens were going to be absolutely fine, we have strong support from our family and friends, and I just hope the American people will be fine, and that's what this election should be about. [standing ovation]

[Whoa, she stole that sentiment and framing from Edwards pretty much whole cloth - so much for charges of plagiarism.]

[Obama pulls her chair out for her at conclusion. Hmmm, this is very controversial - there are some people who would take this as a very gentlemanly thing, but others would think that it is patronizing.]

I like this emotional, personable side of Clinton, it's what she showed in New Hampshire, and I think it's better than what Mark Penn endorses - a Clinton on attack. I don't agree with that idea, and I don't think Americans want to see a negative Hillary. We know she's strong because of all that she's weathered. And I would like for Hillary to remain involved with public life, but I would prefer Obama as president. I think that emotional connection matters, and it's why Obama is doing so well. Mandy Grunwald, who is clinton's media person, has advised a softer, more emotional Clinton, and I really do think that has to do with her political smarts and because she is a woman. Mark Penn has had terrible advice so far and needs to get shitcanned. If one of the things that comes out of this campaign, one of the lessons, is that we need to do away with the old style of political campaigning, the "old white boys" club.

I still think Clinton is a better debater overall, but she isn't as likeable. People in the crowd were actually laughing at his lines, and they didn't seem to be terribly prescripted. The crowd seems to be divided pretty evenly, just as the polls say they are, but the advantage usually lies to Obama because he picks up the undecideds.

My Feb 5th predictions

Some might call it foolhardy to try to predict where 22 frakkin' states will go, but I am just such a crazy person. Consider that Obama has more of a 50 state strategy and a focus on bringing out new and infrequent voters, training them to become precinct captains, while Hillary generally relies on the institutional support of established machines.

Here's where I think votes will break, based upon the information that we have a week before the elections. (Yes, this is strict vote count, not delegates. Even I am not that crazy or sleep-deprived. Even the major news organizations can't agree on how many delegates each candidate has!) But if you are interested, the AP has a list of how many delegates each state has, and Marc Ambinder has a handy tipsheet.

What are my predictions based on? Strength of endorsements/field operations/staff, general intuition, info from people on the ground, newspaper endorsements, polls and conjecture (in rough order.) Caveat: I'm no pundit, and it's mighty hard to predict turnout especially in this year's election given the unprecedented turnout so far. This is why I put less faith in most polls.

Let's also keep in mind that there's terrible weather today - snow in Missouri, tornados in the South. This might put a dampen on Obama's incredible new voter turnout.

Oh yeah, and my GOP prediction is pretty easy - McCain will win majority of the delegates and consolidate lead, causing true conservatives to weep. Now, onto the meat! :

Alabama - toss up. African American voters make up more than a quarter (26%) of the voting population, and should be enough to put him over the top, but keep in mind that Clinton got the endorsement of the entire Alabama Democratic Caucus.

Alaska - Obama. Alaska is an independent minded state more like New Hampshire and he has the support of the former Democratic Governor Tony Knowles. Also Obama has bothered showing up here, which like Idaho, means something to people who are usually ignored.

Arkansas - Clinton. This is her home state (one of many), and Walmart is the largest employer. She was on their Board and the Walmart tentacles are long and tight.

Arizona - tossup. This is a more conservative state that is defined by libertarian values and McCain "go it alone" qualities. But it's culturally much more like Nevada than New Hampshire. Even though Obama has congressman Grijalva and Governor Janet Napolitano, and his immigration policies are more progressive than Clinton's. And in a border state like Arizona, that might unfortunately be the difference.

California - Tossup. When I first wrote this, I had Hillary by 5, but this was before SEIU and Maria Shriver. She has a huge advantage in having wrapped up pretty much ALL of the major institutional support, but Obama has a wicked field team here. And the Field Poll, which is the most important predictor of voter turnout, has Clinton 36 - Obama 34, which is within the margin of error. Maria Shriver's surprise endorsement is going to make up whatever nonstatistical difference, if not put him over the top. We'll see what SEIU in California is able to do for Obama after getting into the game so late (switching from Edwards.) Clinton has Senators Boxer and Feingold but if you note who in Congress has endorsed, you'll see a lot of Pelosi's key lieutenants - George Miller, Eshoo, Becerra.

Also, although the Farmworkers endorsed Hillary, this is hardly a ringing endorsement. They are mostly in California, so it's important symbolically but most of their members are not documented and can't vote. It's another in a long line of "Yes, but. . ." endorsements for Hills, whereas Obama's full-throated endorsements mean something. Just look at poor old Teddy Kennedy traipsing all over and working his heart out. Personally, I even think he called in a favor to Maria to get her to come out.

Asian Americans make up 11% of the vote, almost twice as much as African Americans. The latino vote makes up almost a third of the voters, so we'll see if Teddy Kennedy can carry it.

Lastly, Obama got the newspaper endorsements in Cali all wrapped up including the two largest papers in SF and LA. That's worth a percent or two. But California is traditionally considered Clinton Country, and she has the star names - LA and SF mayors,

Colorado - tossup. Hillary has some staff who ran incredibly effective political operations in the state, so they know the lay of the land like nothing else.

Connecticut - Clinton. This state re-elected Joe LIEberman (Independent), who has endorsed John McCain. Plus its other Senator is Chris Dodd, who I think shocked the political world by coming out strong on netroots issues. Dodd isn't endorsing anyone after dropping out, which is probably because he wants to run for Majority Leader and can't afford to piss off his base - the netroots, which is pro-Obama/anti-Clinton. Obama has the endorsements of 2 congresscritters, but Rosa DeLauro endorsed late, after switching from Edwards.

Delaware- tossup. This state is home to some our most conservative and boring Democratic Senators - Biden and Carper. Huge crowds did turnout for both Obamas, and the electorate is close to one fifths African American.

Georgia - Obama by 10 or more. The substantial African American vote here (28%) will break for him, and let's not forget that Atlanta is the vote capital. They've elected and even re-elected Cynthia McKinney, who is an out Green.

Idaho - Obama. Yeah. Surprised the hell out of me that 10-15 thousand people even lived in Idaho, much less would turn out for Obama, but the proof is in the photos. And that's an awful lot of white people coming out for Obama, more than probably turn out for football games. Don't forget that people in so-called flyover country really appreciate it when you visit.

Illinois - Obama by more than 20. In between being a very popular home state Senator and having the lockup of the Daley machine, to the degree that even Clintonista Congressman Rahm Emmanuel won't formally endorse, he's got it wrapped up.

Kansas - Obama. This is his technical home state, and incredibly popular Democratic (some might say post-partisan) Gov. Kathleen Sebelius came out for Obama. This woman has completely turned Kansas around and elected Democrats all over.

Massachusetts - Obama. He's got the two Senators, Kerry and Kennedy, and the support of the state's first African American governor, Deval Patrick. Of course, the senators are travelling all over the country instead of staying at home to lock in support. It'll be tighter than expected because Clinton got the mayor and chair of Boston's city council, half the state's Congressional delegation, and both leaders in the state leg. but don't forget the huge college population - and the youth vote is solidly in Obama's base.

Minnesota - Obama. Minnesota's DFL is one of the most progressive and open state parties. The state elected our very first and only (so far) African American Muslim Congressman. They elected Paul Wellstone, activist and professor, and the general populace are notorious for liking the independents - Jesse Ventura anyone? Plus they have a decent field operation, and Mee Moua supports Barack, like many of the new Hmong American leaders who see in him their own scrappy refugee experience.

Missouri - tossup. Senator McCaskill endorsed, and strongly, which should help amongst female voters. But the racial politics in Missouri are crazy bad. A lot of people will be watching as this is a bellweather state that has picked the candidate repeatedly. African Americans make up 11% of the vote, and Hill has former Rep. dick Gephardt's support.

New Jersey - Hillary. She's got all the institutional support here - from the Gov on down. Obama has the still popular fmr. Gov Codey, but this is a state that is heavily influenced by NY (wether or not it wants to admit it) and

New Mexico - Clinton. Richardson has studiously avoided endorsing either Obama or Clinton, which is a HUGE shocker since for most of the primary campaign he seemed to be openly jockeying for a veep position in the Clinton Cabinet, Part Deux. But I guess he genuinely likes Obama and is trying to give him a chance. Given that a big part of Richardson's resume rests on his time in the Dept of Energy and as UN Ambassador, both as Bill's appointee. If anyone in the endorsements game owes the Clintons anything, it's Richardson. So I am officially giving him some props here for holding out. Can't be easy given their history. (And Lord knows I do not love Richardson for his mishandling of the Wen Ho Lee affair.)

New York - Hillary by 15 or more. Upstate will break her way, and the city will be more of a fight, but most of the machine belongs to her, and the unions endorsed her. NY NOW apparently is ready and willing to castrate Teddy Kennedy for her. Obama will get the creative vote, not that it'll be broken down like that in the exit polls. Also, the NY Asian American institutions like John Liu support Hills.

North Dakota - Obama. Senator Johnson endorsed him, and so did former Senator Daschle, former Majority Leader.

Oklahoma - tossup.

Tennessee- Clinton. she has more endorsements and a stronger staff. While African Americans make u[p 16 % of the vote, she has poured energy into securing this state.

Utah - tossup. There's a large Mormon population, so Romney should be getting it for the other [party. But Obama actually has opened up an office here - talk about 50 state strategy!

Our Dem candidates as Christmas Past, Present and Future

Since I seem to be on a holiday theme, I thought I would do a quick critique of the Season's Greetings videos that the Clinton, Edwards and Obama campaigns put out. Hat tip to Politico.

The Ghost of Christmas Past
Why is Hillary's "Presents" ad so lame? Is it the psuedo-warm lighting, her flickering pasted on smile? At first I thought this was a literal Hallmark commercial form the 1980s, complete with cheesey music and flickering cheapo plastic ornaments that retail for way to much - schmaltzy and slightly forced emotion packaged as consumerist trap.

I mean, it's like something my 5th grade niece would have thought up. C'mon folks - and you wonder why you're falling behind in the polls? and how much did she pay her media advisor to come up with this crap?!? There are amateurs on youtube who do a better job of tearing her apart.

This ad just screams, "I'm Queen Hillary, and we are not amused." However, we do handout government plans like christmas presents - you get a house! And you get some pre-K education. And you, over yonder, you get . . . bored to tears.

Finally, her closing voiceover of the legally required "I'm X and I approve this message" made her sound even more distorted and robotic than previously considered possible. I can't believe she's recycling this stale idea from my grandma's dusty attic.

In fact, I'd say that her awkward handling of portraying Americans' main policy concerns as mere gifts both trivializes these weighty issues (c'mon, a present with a tag that reads "bring the troops home"?!?!?) and makes her look supercilious as she slips these papers bearing our burning issues under the ribbons.


The Ghost of Christmas Present
In contrast, John Edwards is not the Mr. Sunlight that he used to be - instead, the grim and bleak years without presidential wisdom and guidance have turned our country into the economic shambles it is today. They have also made him a changed man, or at least a changed campaigner - he speaks much more forcefully in terms of moral certitude and absoluteness.

We are at a time of weighty decision-making, but we can turn things around. We can improve America for those who haven't been heard, for the Tiny Tims and the families gathered around a bare table.

It's a serious and somber video, not intensely lit but rather darkly lit, as if he were warning us of the dangers. His Christmas wishes are full of the substantial policy needs and root causes that Hillary's just glosses over.

Currently we do live in a divided America, which brings me to our third candidate. . .



The Ghost of Christmas Future
The wonderboy. The warm flame-lit room bounces love and cheer off its walls, and the family portrait setting is intimate, traditionally set. simple, plain, and to the point. Slightly hokey and gimmicky with the kids chiming in, but what I am most struck by is this radically different version of what a White House fmaily could look like - biracial and proud.

This video says, "it's not too late to turn it all around - we can be united, stronger together with our many voices, than if you were alone. so come on in from the cold."

Dog Whistle Politics, Dem and GOP style

How do we know when folks are sending an underhanded message?

First I want to talk about dog whistle politics on the GOP side, since that's where we usually see it - with coded words and phrases, typically from the bible, and meant to tell listeners: "Don't worry, I'm one of you."

Mike Huckabee's newest ad has a big fat "I AM CHRISTIAN, SUCK IT ROMNEY" cross blaring out at you at the exact time he says Christ. Look at the way the lighting falls so that the "bookshelf" glows with an unearthly white, as he wraps up his homey, let's all play nice line: "Let's just remember what really matters this Christmas season is the celebration of Christ."
Look at how the Xmas tree cuts off the horizontal line and how the dark shadow shortens the horizontal line on the other side. It's a friggin cross! doesn't matter how much Huckabee "aw shucks"es it, claiming, "It is a bookshelf, people, a BOOK-SHELF" on Morning Joe, claiming that he was signaling in morse code a secret message to evangelicals. Here's a good dissection by the Young Turks, and they have a cute commentary at the end.



Reason 2999 to be afraid of Huckabee - guy comes across genuine and sincere and is wicked smart but craaaaazy.

Now for the Democratic side of dog whistle politics - when you say something that doesn't mean anything to the general audience, but for those in a special sub selected audience, have a far more significant and usually sinister meaning.

what am I talking about? None other than former Senator Bob Kerrey's poison kiss to Obama:

Jack and Jill has the breakdown.

"I have a very high regard for Senator Obama..."

Translation: In no way, shape or form therefore could anything I am about to say (or repeat) possibly be construed as racist...

"[...] As an African-American, he can speak in an authentic way to underperforming black youth who I think will follow his example."


Translation: The niggers are coming! The Niggers are COMING! NIGGERS!!! And they will be emboldened by Barack Obama (didn't he say he sold drugs? or maybe he just used them, whatever) to rob your stores, rape your daughters and generally run amok. Crime! Lowered property values! NIGGERS!

Merry Christmas, folks. Enjoy your under-the-radar language and subliminal messaging. Jeez, all I want for Christmas is a more intelligent level of discourse as opposed to one candidate's main pollster and advisor repeatedly screaming "Cocaine! cocaine! cocaine!" This shit is not okay.

Thanks for the candidates

I watched the last Democratic debates in Iowa before the primaries and caucuses, and I have to say that overall, I am pretty damn impressed by our candidates. We have an African American man who is the frontrunner, the first woman frontrunner, a credible Latino candidate who could very well be picked for veep, and a really strong field all around. Senators Biden and Dodd are two guys who know their stuff, and Edwards is fighting the good fight for the oppressed. (And yeah, I believe it's possible to remember your roots when you make it big, so no, I don't find it incongruous that he lives in a big house even though he's fighting for the little guy. I do think it provides for easy fodder though.) Our candidates are strong, knowledgeable, and ready to serve, despite the personal, political and family pressures of campaigning. I admire that.

What struck me is the tone of camaraderie that the candidates shared - they blunted attacks and Obama even defended Joe Biden, of the infamous "so clean, so fresh" appellation. Someone on dailykos wrote that it was the classiest moment of the debates, and I think that is accurate. (Btw, I'm also glad to have heard a different Biden - esp. at the end when he said that his New Year's Resolution is to remember where he came from. It was a really heartfelt and touching moment, not scripted, just penitent. So I'm glad to have a new, increased respect for Biden, because it's easy to just categorize people as one sentence uttered out of 6 million in their lifetimes.) So I want to thank our candidates for having the courage, chutzpah, dream, passion, fire, and dedication to undertake the crazy endeavor of running for president. It's a damn hard thing to do.



A lot of the reporters said that this was a boring debate, but actually I found it quite comforting that no one pulled out their big missiles, and I was cheered by the lack of daylight on policy issues. I mean, when you get down into the nitty gritty details, they would implement these reforms differently, but everybody agreed about what has to be changed, for the most part.

I'm pretty impressed that Obama has for the most part not gone negative, when that seems to be Team Hillary's instinctual approach, and I think that she kinda can't help but do that given all the assaults she has weathered. When Obama was languishing for months, and donors and supporters were asking, "Why can't you take a harder-hitting stance? Hit below the belt for once?" Obama for the most part - with the exception of the failed "Hillary Clinton (D-Pakistan)" gambit, has played it clean, and kudos to him for that. It makes me think that as a President, he might not get overly corrupted by power. More than that, it gives me hope.

I think it's true that so many Americans just want to believe, for once, in an elected official. And I think it is easy if you happen to be a progressive with some knowledge of trying to hold some squirming, long-toothed, beady-eyed rat of a politician accountable - well, you soon develop a disgust and distaste for the breed in general.

It's easy to fall into the holier-than-thou trap, to have reservations. Because you've seen so many different faces that all blur into one promising you change, promising you a new start, but all they do is slap a fresh coat of paint on that tired 1984 Chevy, and tell you that she'll run like a beaut. There are, after all, only so many times that you can get suckered before you learn to run far in the opposite direction when you see the huckster coming.

We on the left have such high standards. It's one of our eternal lights and biggest strategic flaws. We dream big and blame the world for not seeing our vision, when there's 66 million of us running around with our own unique perfect. And it's always a future perfect.

So we never see it when it's standing right there in front of us, in our lifetimes.

Me, my perfect would be the antithesis of the modelminority running for president, someone who had worked in the fields or factories, who had really and truly struggled, and appreciates that just because yellow is close to white doesn't mean you get to ignore black and brown. It's someone a lot like Mike Honda with the biography of Hubert Vo. Someone who didn't dream of being a politician their whole lives, but who has lived, and found a way of serving people in other, more meaningful ways.

I'm not sure if I'll ever see an Asian American perfect someone like that run for president - if there was someone like that, they'd probably be too smart to run for national office. But it's nice to hope, and to have someone show you and tell you how to hope again. But at the end of the day, you still have to take that very dangerous leap of faith.

Colbert '08

If only I lived in South Carolina, I would vote for Stephen Colbert for president. As it is, I am pleased to announce my full-hearted support for Colbert for president. He has the gravitas, the single-minded determination to make it happen and to turn this country around.

Yesterday's Colbert Report was CRAZY HILARIOUS - as host/candidate, he totally ripped up Doritos' endorsement of his candidacy - and boy did he cross the line!

Plus he had Craig Newmark (craigslist) on, and the nerd on nerd interaction was hot and hilarious.

I am sooooo jealous of donorschoose.org - they got mad hyped by Colbert. I can bet that their straw poll is not the only poll that Colbert wins though.

And grumpy old DC insiders say that Colbert risks breaking election law - Kenneth Vogel
of the Politico grouses that colbert is crossing major lines as TV host and candidate, and that they may face large FEC fines.

God, colbert is brilliant skewering Thompson, Arnold, etc and the whole pagentry of political weaseling and campaigning in this fashion. I am so jealous of his writers - they are really transforming American politics by revealing it to be the dog and pony show, smoke and mirrors high school beauty pageant, replete with bitter sniping and partisan figurative tripping other candidates as they stalk their way down the catwalk.

Soon I will follow up with my press release in support of a fictitious character's fictitious campaign for a position that is currently occupied by a war criminal. But like any good flack, I'm going to announce this on Monday, instead of throwing it out with the trash. This is just my unprecedented announcement that I will announce my declaration of support. Boo-ya!

Updated: Advice to campaigns on AAPI outreach; Hillary and AAPIs

It has to be said that the Hillary campaign is a self-correcting machine. They snubbed the Asian American media in California (of all places!) and then they recently hired Press Secretary Jin Chon, who worked AAPI press for Kerry in 2004. I personally wouldn't be surprised if APIA leaders and media figures didn't play a heavy role in that decision. It looks like he's handling ethnic and LGBT press. [Update: Hillary hired Fabiola Rodriguez-Ciampoli to be "Director of Hispanic Communications" (their phrasing not mine) - but this is a really smart hire. Fabiola is ex-DNC, ex-DSCC under Harry Reid, ex-Gephardt, etc. Basically she is one of the 2 or 3 Latino spinmeisters in DC and a great add. Like I said, Hillary hires the top operatives.]

In comparing Hillary's AAPI leadership versus that of Edwards, she definitely has more stars and heavy hitters (both nonprofit and elected leaders) and she does a good job of not only releasing a longer list, but also one broken down specifically by ethnicity, which is a nod to the diversity of the community. The electeds she has are in the big money, high density APIA states - Cali, Illinois, New York, Texas. But there's an easy explanation for Clinton's star APAs:

1) Return to power. The Bill Clinton administration was the last time national APA leaders found themselves in positions of significant power - whether as political appointees, or as policy drivers with a seat at the table. It's no surprise that most heads of APA nonprofits are Democratic-leaning, and Bill's was the last Democratic administration. APA leaders have been lost in the wilderness, and seeking redemption and a return to power. Additionally, it's true that the Clinton administration had the highest numbers of APA appointees at that point in history. Many of the names listed were appointees.

2) Return of the King. Bill Clinton as a fundraiser and electeds' need for cash. Bill is easily one of the biggest draws to a fundraiser, and there's little doubt that even the potential of him helping out is mouthwatering. Plus he is quite the charmer and flatterer, so even a small town elected's going fall for the King. And don't forget the whole inevitability argument - electeds like to bet on a sure thing, a known quantity, and Hillary still has the best and most seasoned staff. APAs are a pragmatic bunch, and we want to go with the winner and the associated rewards. If I were the betting type and I had a cool hundred, even I would have to lay $40 on Hillary, $30 on Obama, $20 on Edwards and $10 on Richardson, regardless of personal preferences which I am still trying to sort out.

3) Biggest players still playing hard to get. In terms of her elected official support, having Rep. Doris Mitsui fulfills dual roles as an woman (highlighting Hillary's historic candidacy) and as an Asian American. (But she hasn't been as vocal a representative of the community as Congressman Mike Honda. Who probably can't or won't endorse anyone until later in the game, since he's a DNC Vice Chair. Color me impressed when a candidate gets him.) Doris' late husband, Rep. Bob Mitsui, was a Clintonista who supported free trade policies and the "third way." Clinton has the top (and only) APA electeds in New York City, some of the highest ranking and most visible Dems in California (although there's more parity here with the Edwards' folks.) She's got 2 of 3 of the Texas electeds that I know of (missing is Hubert Vo). Pretty much, these are the three states that really matter for fundraising purposes (and these are the 3 with the largest APA populations. Of course, she also has the State Senate President of Hawaii, the only state with more APIA density.

The renewed attention to our community is a sign that the Clinton campaign is back in fighting form and not just playing "presumptive nominee" (though that happens as well.) I'm glad to see that they are leaving no stone unturned.

A lesson to the Edwards and Obama campaigns: you can still catch up, but move quickly cos the Clintonistas are sharp.

And message to Obama camp: Where the hell is your AAPI supporter list? I understand not wanting to divide into red and blue states, and that there is not a Black America and a White America and Latino America and Asian America but Clinton has a sharp as tacks base vote director. Her campaign is savvy enough to hire the right institutional players in the right places (do you think Villagoraisa's endorsement came from nowhere? His fundraiser works for Clinton in California, and the guy deserves a HUGE raise. If you look at the bevy of Californian APA leaders who endorsed alone, he is working it - tho credit goes to others as well.) Edwards, even with a smaller campaign chest, is putting VISIBLE money and time into the community. At the end of the day, you can say you grew up in Indonesia, and that you were raised in APIA-dense Hawaii, but to some people, the right gestures & people count. And don't forget that timing is everything. Plus, it gets sort of embarrassing when knowledgeable politicos ask about your APA support and there's no hard evidence of prominent individuals. If you have a list of soft supporters (and I'm sure there more than one national nonprofit leader in there), you should make the ask and confirm them. Same goes for Edwards.

We will see if Clinton's superior operatives and operation of old school influencers turns into votes, but don't forget that for all the import of a nonprofit leader or the money of a johnny-come-lately i-banking mogul, it's the politicians who have the machines that drive the votes. And Clinton's currently got the upper hand there. You can build new networks and excite new voters like Dean (and thank god for fresh blood) but it's harder, more expensive, and less predictable to pave new roads. Meanwhile, like any transportation project (metaphor), Hillary knows that it's all about the pork. Clinton's ensuring the right palms get greased, the right words are spoken into the correct set of waiting ears. She's using existing roads to power, and she may get there first.

PS: Totally unrelated but funny - Newt's Spanish tutor claims he spends hours on learning the language. I'm sure Latinos everywhere are relieved to find this out.

PPS: Update #2 Back to topic at hand, and more praise to Hillaryland - they put some money where their mouths are and invested staff into California, which has the biggest APIA population in the country. They hired an Asian American deputy political director for the state, Connie Lee. Hillary's investment in California is wise politically and financially - she's hedging her bets on the pre-Feb. 5th states and on the mega Geb 5th election and California's massive windfall of electoral votes. Meanwhile, Californian donors will feel good that Hillary cares enough to hire not just fundraisers but also actual field staff. They will feel like their votes actually count, and this will help Clinton raise more money. Win-win her her campaign. Plus, Clinton also just installed a new Iowa director, the fierce and fabulous Theresa Vilmain who is one of the top political hands today. Hillary's campaign is firing on all cylinders right now and making all the right staff moves. I gotta say I am impressed and concerned for the other campaigns, and feeling like I'm urging them to play catch up.

Where our candidates stand on immigration, aka "do no harm"

Here's where the major Dem candidates stand so far:

On gutting family reunification:
The Hill - This provision is among the most controversial for civil rights and religious groups, and it has also prompted criticism from Democratic presidential candidates Sens. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.) and Barack Obama (D-Ill.).

Menendez said his office had “given some of our amendments” to other offices, including Clinton and a second presidential hopeful, Sen. Chris Dodd (D-Conn.), whom Menendez said is working with Sen. Orrin Hatch (R-Utah) on another amendment.

Hillary offered a bill to reduce the impact of the gutting of family reunification:

On the other side, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, D-N.Y., plans to offer an amendment that would exempt the spouses and children of lawful permanent residents from the measure’s visa caps, guaranteeing that families receive a higher priority.

This is a SMART move by the Clinton camp to win support from ethnic communities. But you also have to take the long term view and remember that Hillary and Barack voted to build a wall between the US and Mexico last year.

On guest workers:

Democratic Senator Barack Obama of Illinois and former Senator John Edwards of North Carolina objected to the guest- worker provisions, which are opposed by some unions as a pipeline for providing cheap immigrant labor to U.S. business.

Edwards, 53, called the guest-worker plan ``poorly conceived.'' Obama, 45, noted ``some good elements'' in the compromise and said he's reserving final judgment until the legislation emerges in its final form.

New Mexico Democratic Governor Bill Richardson, who is Hispanic, may be squeezed between Hispanic groups' objections and his need to attract Anglo votes. Richardson, 59, welcomed the agreement, while listing reservations.

The candidate called a requirement that a head of household leave the country and re-enter legally ``problematic.'' He also said a provision for a $5,000 fine for undocumented immigrants seeking permanent status was ``so unrealistic that immigrants simply stay in the shadows rather than earn legal status.''

(By the way, in the midst of the immigration debate Richardson decided to formally announce his presidential candidacy.)

The good news on this bill is that Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid is not fond of reducing the importance of family reunification:

Mr. Reid criticized the measure on several grounds.

“The bill impacts families in a number of ways that I believe are unwise,” he said. “The bill also allows 400,000 low-skilled workers to come to America for three two-year terms, but requires them to go home for a year in between.

This is impractical both for the workers and for the American employers who need a stable, reliable work force.”

Best reason to oppose the bill as-is:

In writing the measure, senators bypassed the Judiciary Committee, where immigration bills normally originate.

The chairman of the committee, Senator Patrick J. Leahy, Democrat of Vermont, said, “The bill we have before us is a product of closed-door meetings between the administration and Republican senators, which was then put to Democratic senators as a framework for further negotiations.”

Overall, I don't think that there is enough support from the left or the hard right to get this bill passed the way immigrant rights advocates want, but I fear that somehow the bill will get through regardless and we'll have a huge mess on our hands.

The idea here is to at a minimum, do no harm.

If the bill is this punitive as is, I cannot support it in its present form. I would love to see some REAL progressive immigration reform but until then I would even be happy with our Congress passing something that does no harm. And this bill in its current state does not fulfill that minimum requirement. If improvements are made this week, I will have to re-assess.

If I have more time, I will do a comb-through of the details of the bill and add more analysis, but it's crunch time for my proyecto and I'm not quite sane, so it may only come next week. Until then, sweet dreams.